BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes put out a thought-provoking piece on the company blog today. He talks about the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on the global economy and states that nothing will ever be the same again. “The USD fiction is over. It’s time for a new mental crutch.” He’s opting for Bitcoin and gold–what will your fiction be?
Arthur Hayes Paints a Grim Picture of the Post COVID World
As charismatic as ever, this piece by Mr. Hayes is definitely worth a read. It’s a sort of summary of The Bitcoin Standard with more colorful language thrown in. It also contains some grim predictions of the world post-COVID-19. Hint: It’s not going to be pretty.
Hayes predicts a total collapse of the USD. He says that the U.S. is the only country that can depreciate its currency to the degree necessary to continue to generate economic activity, “at a level which honours the credit in the system and promises to their plebes.”
He then talks about the well-known problem of printing too much money… rampant inflation:
Remember that all raw commodities are priced in dollars, if you print too much money to monetise your government debt, your currency craters and inflation runs rampant. At that point, the Jacobins enter the street and you better not be munching on a cake.
Hayes says that this is how he sees the world over the next 10 years. A pretty dismal picture:
I have no idea on timing, but the strong USD will break the back of the global economy and force a reset. The question is what the new system will look like.
‘All in, Motherf*ckers’ on Bitcoin and Gold
All the global chaos and financial meltdown will eventually swing the pendulum to Bitcoin. He says that the setup for Bitcoin, “the hardest form of digital money, could not be better.” However, he doesn’t know when exactly the wider public will move toward it.
In fact, he doesn’t discard the fact that BTC could test $3K again in the near future:
Could the price retest $3,000? Absolutely. As the SPX rolls over and tests 2,000 expect all asset classes to puke again. As violent as the Q1 collapse in asset values was, we have almost 100 years of imbalances to unwind the ancien régime.
However, despite that sobering scenario, Hayes still stands behind his previous call of an end of year Bitcoin price of $20K. So, that’s something to be hopeful for even if the world around you will crumble beneath your feet.
Hayes ends by stating there are only two things to own during the transition to the new monetary system after the total collapse of fiat. They are Bitcoin and gold.
I will take my inflation adjusted pocket rockets (gold and bitcoin), and call your Bretton Woods seven two off suit. All in, mother fuckers.
What do you make of Arthur Hayes latest blog post? Add your thoughts below!
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